I needed to sit on this one for a couple of weeks, but yeah, I’m still thinking about it and still feel like it’s worth saying…

There’s been yet another mass shooting— this one motivated by white supremacy and perpetrated with a gun no civilian needs (let alone a civilian with a history of domestic violence, which was the case here). As the people of Jacksonville grieve the deaths and express our outrage at the politicians in our state who enabled this, I find myself groaning as a familiar argument bubbles up again:

“The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.”

I’ve heard this a lot over the years, and I want to take a moment today to explore why it’s so misguided. Looking at data from 2001-2021, about half of mass shootings end with the assailants either fleeing the scene or turning their weapons on themselves. About 30% are apprehended or killed by police, with about 3% willingly surrendering, and it’s worth noting about 22.6% of mass shootings in this data did end with police shooting the assailant. The remaining 15% of mass shootings end because bystanders subdue the shooter, BUT the number of mass shooters subdued by an armed bystander (i.e. the proverbial “good guy with a gun”) is only about half a percent.

Why is this? Why would the thing people claim will stop mass shootings actually stop so few? Well, let’s think through the mechanics of one of these situations.

An active shooter is a moving target, and moving targets are harder to hit. Additionally, unlike the targets at gun ranges, active shooters fire back and usually with greater firepower. Add to that, we’re seeing more and more shooters wearing tactical gear (as the Jacksonville shooter did) which limits the chance of a gunshot actually disabling the target. So, already, we’re talking about an incredibly difficult shot. Now factor in the panic any human being feels when threatened with deadly force in an unexpected situation. The fact is that the vast majority of human beings aren’t going to suddenly turn into Sergeant York; we’ll freeze up, flee, or panic to the point that we add to the danger of the situation rather than reducing it. Does it make sense now why the intervention of a “good guy with a gun” is about a 1-in-200 scenario?

The people who perpetuate the “good guy with a gun” fantasy seem to assume that they’d be able to overcome this kind of stress and make these kinds of shots, but that’s statistically improbable (if not impossible), which is why only a fraction of a percent of these incidents are actually stopped by an armed civilian.

Of course, then there’s the more dangerous thing to consider: the line between “good guy with a gun” and “bad guy with a gun” is frighteningly blurry. I myself have been threatened by a “good guy with a gun” who was having a very bad day. In fact, I would wager quite a few assailants imagine themselves to be “good guys with guns.”

So why would anyone perpetuate such a dangerous and easily disproved myth?

Well, another scary stat is that, following mass shootings, sales of guns go up, not down. For gun manufacturers and their lobbying groups, this kind of carnage is sadly good for business, which is one reason many of these talking heads are the very ones who promote “good guy with a gun” rhetoric.

So the next time you hear someone say “the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun,” keep the real data in mind. Police only stop these assailants about 30% of the time, and armed bystanders stop them roughly half a percent. All told, only 23% (22.6% police plus .5% armed civilian) of these shootings end with someone else shooting the assailant; the assailant’s suicide or escape is the far more likely scenario. What actually stops a bad guy with a gun is putting restrictions in place to keep him from getting a gun in the first place.

I’m no policy expert, but even I know some basic things that would help more. A domestic violence conviction should automatically preclude someone from gun ownership. Certain guns —looking at you, AR-15— really shouldn’t be for sale at all, or we should require them to be stored at gun ranges (which is technically the only place they’re supposed to be fired anyway). Close the gun show loopholes. Make safety classes mandatory. End Florida’s “permitless carry” absurdity. You know the drill at this point, but add to the list:

“Good guys with guns” (especially bystanders with guns) aren’t a viable solution and never have been, so don’t even bother entertaining that argument. It’s a fantasy.