Ancient Aliens & the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

So, confession time: I love the show Ancient Aliens.
I watch it and laugh my liberal arts educated ass off as these theorists do their best to explain everything from the Ark of the Covenant to the Pyramids to medieval paintings with one common denominator: aliens.

Who built the Easter Island heads?
Couldn’t be humans; must have been aliens.

What caused the bubonic plague?
Couldn’t have been poor sanitation; must have been aliens.

Why do disparate cultures have similar mythologies?
Couldn’t be common responses to the human condition; must have been aliens.

Seriously, the show is hilarious. Of course, there’s a much simpler explanation to every question on the show: ancient humans were far smarter than we realize. But the theorists on Ancient Aliens are too confident in our modern superiority to ever accept such a simple answer. I get it. So much of our modern understanding of the world hinges on the narrative of modern humans as superior and ancient humans as primitive. We’ve been drinking this particular Kool-Aid so long we can’t imagine civilizations earlier than ours building something like Stone Henge. The truth is ancient civilizations were brilliant and creative in ways we can’t even comprehend. The Greeks created realistic maps of the solar system without the aid of telescopes. The Romans created architecturally marvels with only basic levers, pulleys, and wedges. The ancient inhabitants of the Arabian Peninsula created algebra without a calculator in sight. But it’s hard to accept ancient cultures could be smarter than we are; aliens seem more plausible to us, and we’ll go to great lengths to prove it.

The theorists on Ancient Aliens rely on a classic logical misstep known as the “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.” The fallacy draws its name from a story of a man who set out to prove he was the best shot in Texas. One morning, he drew his revolver and fired six shots into the side of his barn. Once the bullets had landed, he picked up a nearby bucket of paint, drew a bullseye around the bullet holes, and called to his neighbors to brag about his marksmanship.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy occurs when we use the scientific method backwards— when we start from a conclusion and then seek out evidence to confirm it. The fallacious logic is the backbone of almost every conspiracy theory.
“I believe vaccines cause autism; now let me generate some evidence.”
“I believe 9/11 was an inside job; now let me generate some evidence.”
“I believe in a Deep State conspiracy; now let me generate some evidence.”
Or, as the theorists on Ancient Aliens continually demonstrate:
“Because of my belief in the superiority of modern humanity, I also believe the only explanation for ancient human advances is alien interference; now let me generate some evidence.”

Of course, all of this poses a deeper question: where am I committing this fallacy too? We laugh at the Ancient Aliens theorists, but they should prompt us to explore our own beliefs and how we go out of our way to justify them.

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